• Title: Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
  • Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
  • ISBN: 9780670025657
  • Page: 119
  • Format: Hardcover
  • Risk Savvy How to Make Good Decisions An eye opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money health and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our prediction
    An eye opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by usingAn eye opening look at the ways we misjudge risk every day and a guide to making better decisions with our money, health, and personal lives In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation Yet there is hope Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how.Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy to understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.

    One Reply to “Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions”

    1. I live in Japan and work for a global company. At every 6 months or so I would receive a notice from both the company and the ward office of where I live in, calling for breast cancer free check up that are held on regular basis.I never go for it, feeling that the earlier I find out about anything like breast cancer, the less happily I could live the rest of my life. If the cancer were there, it were there, medical intervention would not do much help with serious illness like that, so why ruinin [...]

    2. The version of the book I read had the following notation: "Advanced uncorrected proofs - not for sale." Of course I can only comment on that version, and not on the final copy.I received this book for free through First Reads. This book is hard to rate objectively. Any assessment will be based at least partly on the level of desire the reader might have to wade through some fairly complex calculations. (In certain situations, Mr. Gigerenzer promotes the "simpler is better" theory which can be [...]

    3. I was in favor of Kahneman & Tversky ecole, a branch of bounded rationality called "cognitive biases and heuristics" until I read this book. Now I am noticed that there is another point of view called "fast and frugal heuristics", led by Gerd Gigerenzer. This book partially explains this approach, which shows that some rule of thumbs relying on heuristics may perform better than a complex strategy suggested for a problem. I have also become aware of demarcation between risk and uncertainty b [...]

    4. "GET SCREENED NOW! Early detection saves lives. The 5-year survival rate for breast cancer when caught early is 98%. When it's not? 23%." Actually, there's no evidence that screening for breast cancer, or any other type of cancer, saves lives. So is Komen lying about the statistics? No. But did you notice that they're talking about "5-year survival rate," not mortality? 5-year survival rate is meaningless because it's distorted by lead-time bias. Don't know what lead-time bias is? Read this book [...]

    5. H. G. Wells once predicted that “statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for effective citizenship as the ability to read and write.” Many decades later, we are as clueless about risk as ever—and at a heavy price. Ignorance about risk lies behind innumerable contemporary problems, from the rising cost of healthcare to the recent global financial crisis. In Risk Savvy, Gerd Gigerenzer seeks to change that. Not only does this book demonstrate how and why we fail to understand risk. [...]

    6. Eye opener .It addresses risk vs uncertainty , and how often we mistakingly think that risk is unceratinity and uncertainty is risk. It advocates use of rules of thumb or simple ones instead of the sophistaced systems of risk management. We need educating people in health, financial, and digital risk literacy.Highly recommended

    7. I am constantly afraid of making wrong decisions. I hate it when there is no way to tell if my choices are leading where I want. Therefore I often try to get even the smallest pieces of information before making my choice, balancing carefully out every detail.Turns out it is not the right way to do things. More information does not always give more certainty, as Gigerenzer argues in his book using good examples, clear statistics and simple math. In this world, ever more complex, we must know the [...]

    8. Essential information for anyone receiving medical treatmentAn introduction to understanding risk - particularly in medicine. For example - a woman has a positive mammogram for cancer - what is the probability she actually has cancer? 8 in 10, 1 in 10 or 1 in 100?The answer is 1 in 10. How many gynecologists answered this question correctly? Only 21 percent chose 1 in 10.The author details how pharmaceutical companies and health providers exaggerate the benefits of their products and play on our [...]

    9. This was a book that I thought was amusing, not fantastic, and then overall came around to thinking it was pretty good. Overall, Gerd Gigerenzer talks about how we often make decisions based on a misunderstanding of the data and that we need to do a better job of being what he calls being “risk literate.”In the first part, he talks about how people internalize a risk if a lot of things happen at once (like 9/11 attacks) where there is a low probability of catastrophe, but that people don’t [...]

    10. Somewhere between 3 and 4 stars. I did really, really enjoy this book but it wasn't quite the all-encompassing mind-exploding stream of consciousness brilliance that I hoped it would be. I think that the author (GG) is absolutely bang-on on pretty much everything, but a few little bits and pieces got lost in translation. Perhaps, it was too "popular" for me and I might have appreciated more detail, more depth on some of the threads he explores. I also felt overall the book was a bit "bitty". The [...]

    11. I love the main point of this book: that an answer to building a better modern society does not lie in paternalistic governments that treat people as "stupid", but in helping people make better decisions through understanding risk and uncertainty.I love Gigerenzer's vision of educating people in health, financial, and digital risk literacy.While I understood that people are generally "risk unsavvy" (e.g people won't let their children swim in the ocean for fear of sharks but will let their 16-ye [...]

    12. This is an excellent book that should inspire healthcare and financial consumers they can understand the jargon of specialists. Rather than making people feel insecure or stupid, Gigerenzer, like all the best teachers, shows patience and gentle encouragement that seemingly opaque statistical jargon can be unpacked and understood even by elementary school children depending on how information is communicated. Bayesian probability is converted to natural frequency using pictorial icons that allow [...]

    13. A First Reads win!I absolutely loved this book. Although the subject of risk literacy is potentially both dry and confusing (e.g. knowing the difference between relative risk vs. absolute risk), the author presents it in such a way that it is neither. In fact, it is fascinating and easy to understand. (While the author simplifies concepts to make them understandable, there is never a tone of condescension.) More importantly, what he has to say is crucial, IMHO, to changing the trajectory of our [...]

    14. I picked this book up at least a year ago and put off reading it until now because it had the look of a typical business compilation of specific examples that would be vaguely interesting but not very applicable to the everyday. Thankfully I was totally wrong in that view and what I got instead was an accessible, practical and ultimately satisfying read from an author who clearly has a chip on his shoulder about the mis-information that's floating around, causing individuals and governments to w [...]

    15. It's not often you can say that you're really glad you've read a certain book, but it was the case with Risk Savvy. I expected it to be more about decision making in general (which also would have been interesting, I'm sure), but instead the author offers fascinating insight into heuristics and the use of statistics. Take this example: There's a 30% change of rain tomorrow. Do you know what this actually means? If you do, this book may be a waste of time for you. But if you're not sure what the [...]

    16. Disclaimer: I received this book from a giveaway.I wasn’t searching for a book on how to make decisions, but this book found me. The book covers a lot about innumeracy (the inability to think with numbers) and statistical innumeracy (the inability to think with numbers that represent risk). As a person who likes math and statistics, I found this very interesting.In the first chapter, Gigerenzer talks about the “pill scare” in Great Britain where the UK Committee on Safety of Medicines iss [...]

    17. I won this book in a giveaway. This book was pleasantly different than I expected. I was expecting something about the psychology of risk taking, but instead found a book describing how to best take and communicate risks. The book talks in depth about how many predictions fail because they assume all of their variables are known. The book gives simple rules of thumb and a general technique that actually work in real world situations containing unknowns. The author was understandable and excelle [...]

    18. Be good at math, ask skeptical questions, have rules of thumb. Yep, any engineer could tell you that.

    19. This is a very good book about common misconceptions in understanding risks in everyday life as well as decision theory. People are persuaded to undertake medical screenings without any additional benefit, because the underlying probabilities of studies are misunderstood by doctors. The finance industry gives consistently wrong projections of future market prices, nevertheless many people trust them their money. Gigerenzer shows that having no screening at all or invest your money yourself by ap [...]

    20. I did not realize when I started reading this book that I was one of many who was so uninformed on how how to be more risk savvy. Something simple that the author brings up early on threw me for a loop. If you were informed by your weather man/ woman/ newspaper that there was a 30% chance of rain, what does that mean to you? 30% of what? If you were one of many woman from the 60's and on that were informed of the "risk" of getting blood clots from taking birth control pills and how the third gen [...]

    21. Dr. Gigerenzer's book is a well written and accessible read on applying a sensible statistics based approach to risk and risk based decisions. His chapters on the practice of medicine and many of the fallacies that are carried by physicians themselves, and the general public, on topics like screening tests, how to analyze positive or negative results of tests, are quite relevant and important for physicians to read closely. Some of his suggestions on communicating risks/side effects based on nat [...]

    22. This was an interesting read, I feel like I learnt a fair amount, and have come away from the book feeling a little more risk savvy. But I also feel like this book is a little bit more directed at people who can implement changes, rather than me, the general public. I completely agree with the last chapter in that education is the most important take away from this, and that the teaching of understanding risk and statistics that go along with it should start with children, and then make its way [...]

    23. Excellent. Ever think you are being played a fool, even when the odds seem ever in your favor. Or against. This is a very logical but easy to understand book about the reason things are the way they are, and how corporations *might* be tempted to use it against John Q. Public. Enlightening. A keeper!

    24. Amazing counter-book of Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, slow and fast”: while Kahneman warns us from using heuristics, because they lead us to systematic errors in our decisions, Gerd Gigerenzer proves that substituting heuristics with elaborate rules often harms us physically and financially. Great book!

    25. It doesn't always flow smoothly, but it's still an immense and thorough guide to help you think better about risk and probability. You'll never look at the medical information or investment advertisements the same way again. Must read for every adult.

    26. Expected MoreI had higher expectations. It felt like there was a lot of repetition.It's ideas are clearly expressed and easy to read.

    27. Great insight into the misconceptions of statistics causes bad decisions and long term harm. Also provides techniques to simplify decisions and not over analyze situations. A book that should be read multiple times to form your understanding.

    28. Risk does not equal uncertainty. Nothing is certain, and models that promise certainty are ultimately doomed. The best concept discussed in the book is Error Cultures, every organization has one, either positive or negative. Positive error cultures learn from mistakes and do not punish because of them (think commercial aviation). Negative error cultures create fear, defensiveness, and attempts to hide errors with the result being no opportunities to learn (medicine). Is it any wonder that pilots [...]

    Leave a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *